11 - 3 = 8: A playoff equation
Dan Rubin and Brian McNally
Journal Staff Writers
November 6, 2002

Close district races and a revamped schedule have clouded the quest for Northern Region playoff spots.

Three games and 11 days remain in the regular season and playoff hopefuls must disregard rust and fatigue. With so many teams still in contention, the playoff picture may not come into complete focus until the last game is over.

Here is a snapshot of each team, by district, and their playoff outlook entering tonight.

Note: Eight of the region's 28 teams advance to the postseason, four each in Division 5 and Division 6. The four district winners earn automatic bids and the four remaining spots are awarded to teams with the highest power-point rating.

Concorde District

Team: Westfield
Record (overall, district): 7-0, 2-0
Power points: 14.4 (third in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: vs. West Springfield, vs. Oakton, vs. Centreville
Outlook: Westfield has arrived and is in solid position to secure the school's first-ever playoff berth. However, Westfield has the most difficult schedule from here on out and each game has serious playoff implications. Working in the Bulldogs' favor: all three games are at home.

Team: Centreville
Record (overall, district): 7-0, 1-0
Power points: 15.6 (first in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: at Herndon, vs. Chantilly, at Westfield
Outlook: The Wildcats are in search of their fifth consecutive district title and it may come down to Week 10 at cross-town rival Westfield. Either way, Centreville figures to remain a playoff fixture.

Team: Oakton
Record (overall, district): 5-2, 1-1
Power points: 10.6 (fourth in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: vs. Chantilly, at Westfield, vs. Lake Braddock
Outlook: The Cougars are in the same position as last year, needing three wins down the stretch to earn an at-large berth. They pulled it off in 2001. It's possible Oakton could lose once more and still advance, but help would then be needed from other teams - especially Robinson, who would likely have to beat West Springfield in Week 10 for the Cougars to get in.

Team: Chantilly
Record (overall, district): 5-2, 0-1
Power points: 10.0 (sixth in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: at Oakton, at Centreville, vs. Herndon
Outlook: Chantilly faces a difficult climb toward what would be its first playoff berth in six years. If the Chargers can upset Oakton and Centreville, the power points gained would thrust the Chargers into serious contention. However, Chantilly has not beaten a team with a winning record this season.

Team: Herndon
Record (overall, district): 3-4, 0-2
Power points: 5.9 (10th in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: vs. Centreville, vs. South Lakes, at Chantilly
Outlook: The Hornets are not going to the playoffs, though they can earn a consolation prize by defeating upstart South Lakes Monday in the annual Baron Cameron Bowl.

Patriot District

Team: West Springfield
Record (overall, district): 5-2, 4-0
Power points: 10.4 (fifth in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: at Westfield, at Annandale, at Robinson
Outlook: The Spartans sit on the cusp of their first playoff berth in nearly a decade. But breaking through will not be easy. Tonight, the Spartans face Westfield, another Concorde District heavyweight, and West Springfield already dropped games to Centreville and Oakton. West Springfield's season could come down to a Week 10 matchup with Robinson. If the Spartans win, they're in. If they lose ... well, you know.

Team: Robinson
Record (overall, district): 7-0, 3-0
Power points: 15.0 (second in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: vs. Hayfield, at Lake Braddock, vs. West Springfield
Outlook: The Rams are in good shape. They've won 25 of 26 regular season games and will be favored in their three remaining contests. If the Rams beat Hayfield and Lake Braddock, they're in. The season-ending meeting with West Springfield could be the Patriot District title game.

Team: Lake Braddock
Record (overall, district): 4-3, 2-2
Power points: 8.9 (seventh in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: at West Potomac, vs. Robinson, at Oakton
Outlook: Much like last season, a sluggish start may have doomed the Bruins' playoff hopes. If Lake Braddock wins out there is still an outside chance it will get in. But the Bruins' remaining schedule is brutal.

Team: West Potomac
Record (overall, district): 4-3, 1-2
Power points: 8.3 (eighth in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: vs. Lake Braddock, at T.C. Williams, vs. Annandale
Outlook: The Wolverines are a longshot and another loss would cement their fate. The close loss to West Springfield two weeks ago is the one West Potomac may look back on as what kept them home for the postseason for the second straight year after eight consecutive trips.

Team: Annandale
Record (overall, district): 3-4, 1-2
Power points: 6.1 (ninth in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: vs. T.C. Williams, vs. West Springfield, at West Potomac
Outlook: Annandale's promising start is a distant memory. The Atoms have been reduced to the role of spoiler. A win over the Spartans would mean that role was fitting.

Team: T.C. Williams
Record (overall, district): 2-5, 1-2
Power points: 4.6 (13th in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: at Annandale, vs. West Potomac, vs. Hayfield
Outlook: The Titans have made strides this season, but the playoffs still reside on the distant horizon.

Team: Hayfield
Record (overall, district): 1-6, 0-4
Power points: 2.3 (14th in Division 6)
Remaining schedule: at Robinson, vs. Lee, at T.C. Williams
Outlook: The Hawks' two-year playoff run has come to an end.

National District

Team: Edison
Record (overall, district): 6-1, 4-0
Power points: 12.3 (first in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: at Falls Church, vs. Wakefield, vs. Stuart
Outlook: The Eagles are on the verge of clinching the National District title and a Division 5 playoff berth. Wins in two of the final three weeks will sew things up. Edison will not face a team with a winning record the rest of the regular-season.

Team: Mount Vernon
Record (overall, district): 4-3, 3-1.
Power points: 8.1 (fifth in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Wakefield, at Jefferson, at Washington-Lee
Outlook: Winning the district title is unlikely for Mount Vernon at this point given first-place Edison's schedule. The Majors still have a shot at an at-large playoff berth if they win out, however. They currently sit about two power points behind South Lakes and Madison and will need one of those teams to drop a game or two down the stretch.

Team: Falls Church
Record (overall, district): 3-4, 2-2
Power points: 5.7 (sixth in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Edison, at Stuart, vs. Yorktown
Outlook: The Jaguars are part of a four-team logjam in third place in the National District, but would have to win out and hope for Edison to collapse and Mount Vernon to falter. Falls Church could give Edison at least a shove in the wrong direction with a win tonight against the Eagles.

Team: Jefferson
Record (overall, district): 2-5, 2-2
Power points: 3.9 (Tied for seventh in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: at Washington-Lee, vs. Mount Vernon, vs. Wakefield
Outlook:Jefferson, winner of two games in a row, is also part of the National District third-place logjam. The Colonials have a favorable schedule down the stretch, but five losses is too much to overcome to make the playoffs this season, the first time it was eligible for the National District title.

Team: Yorktown
Record (overall, district): 2-5, 2-2
Power points: 3.9 (tied for seventh in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Stuart, at Washington-Lee, at Falls Church
Outlook: One of the National District's perennial playoff teams will have to watch from the outside this year after a slow start cost it. The Patriots lost to both Edison and Mount Vernon and cannot win the district without a complete collapse by both teams.

Team: Washington-Lee
Record (overall, district): 2-5, 2-2
Power points: 3.6 (Tied for ninth in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Jefferson, vs. Yorktown, vs. Mount Vernon
Outlook: The final team in the four-way tie for third place in the National District, the Generals won't be in the playoffs this year. But they could spoil Mount Vernon's hopes in the final game of the regular-season and could win the unofficial Arlington County championship by beating Yorktown next Monday.

Team: Wakefield
Record (overall, district): 1-6, 1-3
Power points: 1.7 (13th in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: at Mount Vernon, at Edison, at Jefferson
Outlook: No home games left and no hope for a playoff berth, but the Warriors have the best chance to play spoiler of any team in Division 5 with games left against Edison and Mount Vernon. Wakefield is only a game behind the four third-place teams in the National District.

Team: Stuart
Record (overall, district): 0-7, 0-4
Power points:0.0 (14th in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: at Yorktown, vs. Falls Church, at Edison
Outlook: The Raiders have improved this season from last, but the playoffs were not a realistic possibility. Stuart looks for its first win since the 2000 season in its final three games.

Liberty District

Team: W.T. Woodson
Record (overall, district): 5-2, 4-0
Power points: 10.7
Remaining Schedule: vs. Langley, vs. Fairfax, at Lee
Outlook: Woodson hasn't clinched anything yet, but it controls its own destiny. The Cavaliers will take the Liberty District title, their first of any kind since 1981, by winning their final three games. Woodson has already notched wins over Madison and South Lakes, its two closest pursuers. By beating both Fairfax and Lee, the Cavaliers would end those teams' slim district title hopes.

Team: South Lakes
Record (overall, district): 5-2, 4-1
Power points: 10.7
Remaining Schedule: vs. Marshall, at Herndon, vs. Langley
Outlook: The Seahawks' first postseason appearance since 1999 and only its third since 1990 is within sight. A loss to rival Herndon could force the team to sweat out the final berth, however. Even then it would probably take a second district loss to either Langley or Marshall, both of which have just one win this year, to knock the Seahawks out. It would be a remarkable accomplishment for a team that won just once last season.

Team: Madison
Record (overall, district): 5-2, 2-2
Power points: 10.3
Remaining Schedule: vs. McLean, at Marshall, vs. Fairfax
Outlook: The Warhawks are in good shape in power points, but another loss will put their playoff chances in jeapordy. A district title appears out of the question with losses to both South Lakes and Woodson, unless those teams falter, but Madison has the best shot at the final at-large berth with just two losses. Mount Vernon is close enough in power points to cause Madison some concern if it loses again.

Team: Fairfax
Record (overall, district): 3-4, 3-1
Power points: 5.7
Remaining Schedule: vs. Lee, at Woodson, at Madison
Outlook: One of only two Division 6 teams in the Liberty, the Rebels almost certainly must win the district to make the playoffs. There are just too many teams in the Concorde and the Patriot Districts ahead of them in power points for the two at-large berths. With games left against Woodson and Madison a district title is still a possibility, although Fairfax may need South Lakes to drop another district game as well.

Team: Lee
Record (overall, district): 3-4, 3-2
Power points: 5.7
Remaining Schedule: at Fairfax, at Hayfield, vs. Woodson
Outlook: The Lancers are in the same boat as Fairfax, but need more help because they have an extra district loss. There are too many teams ahead of them in Division 6 for an at-large berth. But because they still play Woodson, taking the district title is technically possible by winning out and having South Lakes lose twice and Madison once. Both teams have already beaten Lee this year. The Lancers would also have to hope for a second loss by Woodson in the district.

Team: McLean
Record (overall, district): 2-5, 0-4
Power points: 3.6 (tied for 10th in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: at Madison, at Langley, at Marshall
Outlook: The Highlanders can't make the playoffs, but there are still some important games left, including the annual year-end tilt with rival Langley, which is the second-to-last game of the season this time because of the revamped schedule. All three games are on the road.

Team: Marshall
Record (overall, district): 1-6, 0-4
Power points: 2.0 (11th in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: at South Lakes, vs. Madison, vs. McLean
Outlook: With its own fate already decided, Marshall can still affect the playoff race when it plays South Lakes and Madison.

Team: Langley
Record (overall, district): 1-6, 1-3
Power points: 1.9 (12th in Division 5)
Remaining Schedule: at Woodson, vs. McLean, at South Lakes
Outlook: The Saxons' playoff chances ended weeks ago, but with Woodson and South Lakes left on the schedule they could still have a say in who else gets in. And the game against rival McLean is big, no matter what is at stake.

More Stories


Copyright and Disclaimer ©1998-2007 DigitalSports, Inc.