Oakton graduated its best pitcher, lost most of its top players and lacks a true ace. Yet most of the Concorde District have picked the Cougars as a top team. Perhaps even the team to beat.

Which leads to one question: Why?

Well, because they're Oakton. And, after winning a state title two years ago and winning the Northern Region for the second straight year last spring, that's enough of a reason to pick them again.

``It's like West Springfield year after year where they might not be as strong as they think they are,'' Westfield coach Chuck Welch said, ``but the kids believe they'll be there at the end. A lot of times that mental part is a big factor. Oakton will be very tough again.''

Not everyone agrees that Oakton is the primary target in the Concorde. Herndon's Alan McCullock gave that label to Centreville.

``They have so much talent,'' McCullock said.

Even if Oakton does win the district, it likely won't be in a runaway. Not with the amount of talent it graduated. Besides, Westfield could make a big jump and South Lakes might have the most pitching depth. Either one could win the district.

Still, none of the other teams would even be considered a threat if they had lost as much talent as Oakton, which finished 18-9 and lost in the Group AAA state quarterfinals. But no one is expecting the Cougars to fade just because they lost four-year pitcher Stacen Gant, now playing for George Mason University, among others.

``We're not the team from the last two years,'' Oakton coach Scott Rowland said. ``But no one thought we were The Team the last two years. Our guys do think they can win. That helps a lot. The experience factor is overrated. Just because they're older does not mean they're better.

``I've seen teams that have all nine starters returning and they're not very good. If you can play, you can play.''

And the Cougars still have kids who can play, even if only three of them started in the field last year.

Senior Chris Parker, a starter on the state championship team two years ago, has switched from third to shortstop. His glove and instincts will help ease the position change.

Junior David Miller, in his third season, will start again at second and senior Danny Teschner returns in right. Teschner and Parker both hit around .300 last season.

Sophomore Jared Kubin, a DH last year, will start in either right, first or third this year. He has a powerful bat and started to get hot at the end of last season, with two game-winning hits in the playoffs.

Senior Steven Frasier will play center field, where he started part-time last year. Two seniors will split time at catcher, Aaron Webb and John Hansen.

But pitching is the big question as the Cougars enter without an established ace for the first time in a while. Senior Brian Beatty will get first crack in the No. 1 spot. He threw two one-hitters in 2001, beating Chantilly and West Potomac.

Velocity isn't his game: Beatty throws in the low-80s, but can throw three pitches for strikes and is a competitor.

Two transfers will provide depth. Sophomore Ryan Boyer, from O'Connell, has looked good on the mound and also will play third. Senior left-hander Chris D'Amico, who attended Oakton as a freshman, returns.

Another transfer, junior Ed Gablonski, could help down the line at third.

And the Cougars should benefit from 6-foot-3 left-handed freshman, Evan Frederickson, the hardest thrower on the team. Senior Sean O'Hara has a chance to be a regular in the rotation; he'll also play first.

``There's not much difference between our best pitcher and our numbers six and seven guys,'' Rowland said. ``We might have to go by committee. I'd like to have that one guy, but all of our guys can give us three or four innings.''

If Oakton can answer its pitching questions, it again will be a factor at the end of the season. If not, the Cougars figure to reload next year. Word of warning to the region: Rowland called the current Oakton freshman class the school's best. He cut four freshmen who were pushing others for starting jobs, making sure they'd get playing time on the junior varsity.

And Rowland will leave the success of the team up to the seniors. Just as he's done the past two years.

``Sometimes a senior doesn't get a chance to play until now and he comes out like a ball of fire,'' Rowland said. ``That's what's happened at Oakton. We've had a lot of guys get their first chance to be a starter and they play great.

``They've been around, they've practiced. It's just their turn.''

CENTREVILLE

Centreville emerged as the region's second-best team last season, riding senior leadership and a hot pitcher to the state tournament. They won't have the senior leadership this season, but they will have the hot pitcher.

The Wildcats have no seniors on the roster - three who would have started elected not to play for various reasons. But they do have a strong junior class, led by ace pitcher Chuck Mellies, who went 8-5 and completed 10 starts last season, helping the Wildcats reach the Group AAA state semifinals. He also earned second-team all-Journal honors.

Mellies now throws in the mid-80s, adding a few miles an hour to his fastball after an offseason of weightlifting. Junior pitcher Eric Fox, who missed half of 2001 with a broken wrist, also returns. Though he's not a hard thrower - he tops out in the low-80s - he knows how to pitch, locating his fastball and throwing his curve for strikes. Another junior, Tommy Dittoe, will pitch and play first.

Mellies' twin brother, Dan, returns as the starting catcher. Junior Ryan Bell, a hot hitter at the end of last season, will start at shortstop and pitch. Bell played last spring with a fractured jaw, forcing him to wear a protective bar across his helmet. He no longer needs the bar.

Junior outfielder Brandon Valus, a late-season callup from the junior varsity in 2001, provides speed at leadoff.

Three sophomores will be key contributors: Matt Greba (third base), Justin Peteliski (second base) and Bud Hall (designated hitter). Greba's defense has impressed coach Donnie Warren while Hall had two doubles and a homrer in Centreville's two scrimmages.

Warren is confident in his pitching and defense. After that, it's a question mark.

``It's very, very hard to go out and be the leader of the district with us as young as we are,'' he said. ``But we'll be very competitive.''

CHANTILLY

Chantilly was forced to use an older, inexperienced lineup last season. The Chargers struggled because of it, posting a 9-10 record.

They'll be inexperienced again, but they'll also be young, giving them a chance to develop. Chantilly has 14 juniors, two sophomores and only three seniors on the roster.

Four starters return, including junior Brett Rembold. The 6-foot-7 Rembold made a dent at the plate, batting .350 and earning all-district honors. Coach Chris Haddock said Rembold has shown more power in the preseason. Rembold will play first and serve as the No. 2 pitcher behind senior Jon Link, who doubles as a shortstop. Link and Rembold both started a half-dozen games on the mound.

Seniors Sean Lesser (catcher) and Bryan Szego (middle infield/pitcher) also are returning starters. Junior Ryan Langford also is expected to pitch.

Junior Brian Gould (third base) will bat fourth while junior Lucas Balderson (first base) will help, too.

Two sophomores likely will start: Bryan Parks (outfield) and Jason Klein (infield).

Haddock is confident in his pitching and hopes to manufacture runs, using the young players' speed.

``By the end of the season we might be a team like Centreville was last year,'' Haddock said, ``where no one expects us to do well but the kids believe they can. We might take people by surprise. I'm extremely excited and have been all year about this group. They work hard and they're talented.''

HERNDON

Herndon is confident; Nate Larkin is healthy. The two are connected. If Larkin's bum left shoulder remains sound this spring, he gives the Hornets something they lacked in 2001: one of the area's best pitchers.

``You always think you have a chance to win when he pitches,'' Herndon coach Alan McCullock said. ``He gives us the ability to win. He's one of the best pitchers around.''

The left-handed Larkin pitched approximately 10 innings last year as the Hornets finished 11-7. But this is his fourth varsity season and McCullock said he's fully recovered from any shoulder woes.

Larkin still contributed last season, batting .344 and playing a solid first base, where he's made all-district the past two years. He's already signed with Shippensburg.

Herndon returns five other starters: seniors Brian Chevalier (center field), Chris Hagan (second base) and Stephen Draeger (left field/first base), junior Ryan Selestay (right field) and sophomore Mickey Rozakis (catcher). Chevalier and Draeger both hit around .285 in 2001.

Chevalier opens the season as the No. 2 pitcher after a strong summer. Senior Travis Johnson and junior David Speirs round out the starting staff.

Junior James Christmas will start at short and sophomore Brandon Guyer, who has hit well in practice, will start at third.

JEFFERSON

Jefferson lost just about everyone last season, including its coach. But the Colonials turned to an experienced leader in Dan Pototsky, who coached at Washington-Lee from 1987-94. He spent last year helping out the Wakefield junior varsity.

At Washington-Lee, Pototsky won three district titles. Another one might be asking too much this season, based on what Jefferson lost.

The Colonials return only two starters, albeit solid ones, in senior shortstop Justin Warren and senior second baseman Sam Maslin. The latter will be Jefferson's No. 1 pitcher. Maslin pitched a lot last summer, but is an inexperienced varsity pitcher.

Warren was an all-district infielder last season and batted .371. Pototsky likes senior catcher Patrick Kelly, who played some last season. Seniors Will Van der Vaart, Greg Archer and Andrew Breithaupt will pitch.

Three other seniors will start: Reid Sassman (outfield), Brad Carra (second base) and Jeff Stepp (utility infielder). Pototsky called freshman center fielder Shane Warren, Justin's brother, a ``pleasant surprise.''

``Jim [Jullien] built an excellent program here,'' Pototsky said. ``I just hope to keep it going.''

SOUTH LAKES

South Lakes has the ace pitcher and some experience. If the Seahawks, 13-7 a year ago, receive help from a few newcomers, they could become a major factor in the region.

Junior Asher Demme is over the arm problems that plagued him last spring. But his shoulder bothered him during the preseason. When healthy, few are better than the left-handed Demme, who has good size (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) to match a fastball clocked in the upper-80s. He'll play first or DH when not pitching.

Another junior left-hander, Brent Cochrane, has looked sharp and has strong lineage. His brother, Chris, is a Seahawk alum now pitching for James Madison. Like Demme, Cochrane is big (6-foot-4, 200-plus pounds).

``Brent knows how to pitch,'' South Lakes coach Galvin Morris said. ``His brother taught him the small things and told him about what he went through. Brent has listened to his brother.''

The Seahawks have one more big junior left-handed pitcher: Matt Barnes, who moved in from Arizona and also will provide help at the plate.

Junior Jon Francis is a returning pitcher who should contribute. Senior Will Bate returns at third base and juniors William Bussey and Ben Bjorlo are back in left and right, respectively. Senior Bret Camp, who sat out last season with a bad back after starting as a sophomore, can play multiple positions, including catcher. Senior Ben Sweet will again play center and pitch.

Demme, Camp, Bussey and Bjorlo provide speed on the bases.

``Our pitching will hold up for us and keep games close,'' Morris said. ``We've just got to hit. We have potential at the plate and we have a little speed. But like I said before, they never pass out a championship trophy in March.''

WESTFIELD

Second-year Westfield got hot at the right time last season, splitting its last 10 games. With everyone back, the Bulldogs hope to stay hot this spring.

They finished 5-16 a year ago, but five of those losses were by one run. And they posted big wins, defeating eventual region champion Oakton and runner-up Centreville. The Bulldogs nearly beat Centreville in the first round of the district tournament, losing 3-2.

``They could have easily packed their tents and quit when they were getting 10-runned every night,'' Westfield coach Chuck Welch said.

But the players didn't do that. Which is one reason Welch is anxious for this season. Several coaches tabbed the Bulldogs as a team to watch in the Concorde. If they get any pitching to go with a potent lineup they could be dangerous.

Junior Ryan Cunningham (first base) batted .409 in earning all-district honors last season. Senior infielder Keith Zittle batted .395. Senior Chris McGough (outfield), another all-district member, and senior Monty Wells (infield) batted .304 and .300, respectively. Wells and Zittle will rotate between second and DH.

Senior Matt Harvey, whom Welch called a ''hard-nosed, tough kid," anchors the infield at third. Senior Rob Ellis will once again start in the outfield. Sophomore Jason Bour is a returning catcher.

Welch said his lineup often will have eight players capable of hitting homers.

But the pitching remains inexperienced. Two hard-throwing sophomores should help: Louis Ullrich and Matt Campbell. Ullrich also plays in the outfield. Senior Stosh Fry offers consistency on the mound. McGough, a lefty, will pitch in relief.

Welch also hopes the Chantilly school's success in football and basketball carries into the spring.

``There's no intimidation here,'' Welch said. ``They know they belong.''